* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022017 05/31/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 33 30 30 30 30 32 34 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 12 16 15 12 15 14 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 0 -1 1 -2 0 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 231 213 184 186 193 191 200 200 206 188 184 183 179 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 157 156 156 154 151 151 150 150 150 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 9 8 7 10 7 10 8 11 9 12 10 700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 75 71 67 63 63 61 61 61 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 10 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 49 62 71 76 81 78 82 76 71 52 44 25 200 MB DIV 141 115 115 116 85 71 55 36 17 5 34 33 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 239 184 107 41 -15 -102 -152 -208 -139 -93 -92 -68 -45 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.2 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.0 18.1 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 97.9 97.9 97.9 97.9 98.1 98.2 98.2 97.7 97.0 96.4 95.8 95.4 95.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 6 4 2 4 3 3 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 23 21 2 36 30 29 15 16 27 30 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -6. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 97.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022017 TWO 05/31/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 28.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022017 TWO 05/31/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##