* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/18/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 10 13 15 17 15 21 24 24 27 34 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 3 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 207 215 232 231 242 261 258 248 242 236 234 241 232 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 141 141 140 137 135 133 132 133 134 130 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 55 57 56 56 56 51 49 47 48 49 49 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 19 23 22 28 34 30 39 42 61 69 73 73 73 200 MB DIV 21 20 7 16 16 6 27 24 33 21 29 36 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 2392 2374 2292 2227 2166 2016 1869 1743 1677 1664 1703 1767 1881 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.8 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 132.5 133.3 134.1 134.7 135.3 136.7 138.0 139.1 139.6 139.6 139.1 138.3 137.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 5 2 2 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 10 13 15 21 20 17 19 19 17 13 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 26. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -21. -24. -28. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 132.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/18/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.74 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.15 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.18 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 9.3% 3.6% 1.1% 0.5% 2.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 8.9% 4.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/18/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##