* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/17/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 24 24 23 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 24 24 23 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 22 20 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 13 14 13 13 20 15 17 20 23 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 0 0 -1 -2 1 3 0 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 212 213 215 215 223 253 266 247 230 224 231 225 226 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 144 143 142 141 139 137 135 132 134 135 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 56 58 58 60 59 59 56 54 52 53 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 6 4 8 17 22 31 32 29 45 53 63 78 87 200 MB DIV -1 3 16 24 17 29 34 34 44 37 25 32 63 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 2160 2267 2353 2431 2361 2239 2113 1959 1822 1720 1686 1698 1773 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.1 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 130.1 131.2 132.0 132.8 133.5 134.7 135.9 137.3 138.5 139.4 139.7 139.5 138.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 5 7 7 6 3 0 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 10 8 9 12 17 23 19 17 17 18 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -14. -16. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 130.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/17/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.76 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.14 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.35 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.16 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 125.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.48 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.5% 3.2% 0.4% 0.2% 2.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 5.3% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/17/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##