* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/17/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 21 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 15 15 17 19 23 23 20 23 23 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 6 4 0 0 -1 1 3 6 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 240 229 222 217 228 247 271 263 249 250 237 234 231 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 140 140 138 137 136 136 137 135 134 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 54 55 56 55 55 52 53 54 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -3 2 0 1 11 19 18 14 24 33 44 44 200 MB DIV 33 29 14 14 23 25 24 13 31 35 31 24 36 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1932 2043 2159 2252 2348 2254 2104 1955 1796 1633 1507 1465 1460 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 128.0 129.4 130.7 131.7 132.7 134.3 135.8 137.3 138.8 140.3 141.4 141.7 141.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 10 9 8 7 8 7 7 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 16 15 13 11 13 19 22 18 15 13 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 788 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -19. -22. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 128.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/17/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.72 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 147.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.60 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 22.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.73 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.2% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.7% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/17/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##