* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 39 43 45 44 42 39 34 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 39 43 45 44 42 39 34 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 9 9 6 4 4 3 9 17 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 0 -1 0 0 2 4 -1 -4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 136 139 153 149 167 190 245 201 246 233 253 235 238 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 141 142 142 142 143 143 142 143 144 141 137 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 62 60 62 61 65 67 69 69 64 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -16 -19 -26 -29 -23 -21 -5 4 16 28 31 33 200 MB DIV 25 29 33 19 10 26 20 28 45 27 39 51 18 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 0 -3 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 1405 1485 1553 1637 1699 1841 1959 2044 2106 2108 2123 2121 2183 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.4 13.8 13.2 12.8 13.1 13.7 14.6 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 120.1 121.6 122.8 123.9 124.7 126.0 126.9 127.4 127.8 128.1 128.8 129.8 131.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 9 7 6 5 4 1 3 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 6 8 12 13 14 12 11 11 12 14 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 19. 23. 25. 24. 22. 19. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.5 120.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/14/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 114.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 10.7% 5.0% 1.5% 0.6% 4.2% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 1.4% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/14/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##