* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/14/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 20 21 24 25 26 27 26 24 23 22 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 20 21 24 25 26 27 26 24 23 22 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 12 11 11 14 11 11 8 12 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 -3 0 0 4 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 189 221 227 236 240 237 240 248 221 238 248 263 237 SST (C) 28.5 27.7 26.7 26.1 26.2 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 143 133 126 126 131 134 136 140 142 141 141 140 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 59 59 60 61 58 63 63 66 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -32 -37 -41 -37 -49 -39 -32 -6 11 18 28 31 200 MB DIV 31 26 27 33 34 16 19 28 55 42 25 12 32 700-850 TADV 8 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1035 1082 1128 1191 1275 1471 1673 1861 2038 2178 2240 2262 2268 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.2 17.4 17.3 16.7 15.9 14.9 14.0 13.6 13.6 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.0 117.5 119.0 120.4 121.7 124.0 126.0 127.7 129.0 129.9 130.3 130.6 131.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 13 12 10 10 8 7 4 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 28 19 11 4 2 5 12 10 12 14 14 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.5 116.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/14/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 122.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.66 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.3% 2.9% 0.7% 0.3% 2.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/14/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##