* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 48 47 44 41 40 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 48 47 44 41 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 30 30 28 26 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 13 11 9 7 5 7 12 17 18 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 1 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 73 81 95 112 127 173 189 226 236 238 235 235 239 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 27.9 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 152 152 152 144 134 136 140 137 136 135 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 69 70 70 70 70 67 65 62 63 60 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -5 0 4 2 -10 -26 -31 -33 -24 -18 -1 8 200 MB DIV 31 26 5 0 9 19 34 6 -15 -8 35 19 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 3 5 7 5 2 4 6 7 3 LAND (KM) 958 1023 1093 1160 1178 1230 1329 1399 1505 1656 1807 1920 2027 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 111.0 112.2 113.4 114.5 116.8 119.1 121.1 122.8 124.8 126.7 128.4 130.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 11 12 11 9 9 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 24 33 32 28 23 6 6 9 10 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 19. 23. 22. 19. 16. 15. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 109.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/13/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.32 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.41 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.17 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 80.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.56 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.7% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 1.7% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% Consensus: 0.4% 7.6% 4.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/13/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##