* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/12/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 45 47 48 46 43 40 40 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 45 47 48 46 43 40 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 34 33 32 29 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 15 13 8 5 6 7 15 13 22 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 2 -1 0 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 71 62 62 72 84 127 218 247 285 268 253 264 262 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.7 27.9 27.0 27.3 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 155 157 157 153 153 144 134 138 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 68 69 69 68 67 65 61 61 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -29 -31 -21 -11 0 -5 -18 -26 -33 -28 -21 -1 200 MB DIV 40 44 39 35 16 -10 10 20 30 2 -14 12 33 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 2 7 6 8 4 5 5 3 3 LAND (KM) 734 758 760 768 793 862 992 1060 1183 1319 1506 1725 1939 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.7 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.6 15.4 15.1 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.6 105.8 106.9 108.1 110.5 112.9 115.5 118.0 120.3 122.7 125.2 127.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 13 12 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 28 32 35 25 33 27 38 4 10 19 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 22. 23. 21. 18. 15. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 103.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/12/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.54 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.31 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 79.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.48 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.4% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 2.4% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% Consensus: 0.4% 8.5% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/12/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##