* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/11/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 43 53 58 59 57 55 51 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 43 53 58 59 57 55 51 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 31 34 39 45 48 48 44 40 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 10 8 6 5 4 3 9 11 16 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 1 1 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 105 107 95 87 79 40 83 218 233 250 259 258 249 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.1 26.6 26.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 157 161 160 162 158 152 147 131 133 141 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 7 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 71 71 67 66 66 60 59 55 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -17 -24 -26 -35 -24 -4 0 -15 -23 -11 -14 -25 200 MB DIV 23 8 3 8 22 28 42 8 10 8 28 13 18 700-850 TADV 6 5 4 0 0 0 4 4 11 10 9 5 2 LAND (KM) 584 578 563 546 553 572 609 733 845 985 1172 1405 1675 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.7 13.0 14.3 15.3 16.0 16.4 16.6 16.3 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.4 97.7 99.1 100.7 104.1 107.3 110.4 113.4 116.4 119.4 122.3 125.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 14 15 17 17 16 16 15 15 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 12 12 32 35 37 27 24 18 7 5 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 28. 33. 34. 32. 30. 26. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 95.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/11/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 46.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/11/16 00 UTC ## ##