* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 08/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 53 63 70 74 75 80 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 53 63 70 74 75 80 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 47 51 55 59 64 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 8 8 8 8 7 11 4 2 4 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -7 -6 -4 -1 2 -1 2 -1 -4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 10 14 10 355 350 351 340 339 337 337 156 92 69 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 159 158 153 148 145 144 142 138 139 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 74 72 64 58 57 54 52 48 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 9 10 12 13 17 19 20 21 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -23 -17 -18 -13 3 16 14 15 16 33 49 49 200 MB DIV 54 26 0 3 9 28 36 35 45 30 13 22 4 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -1 2 -1 -1 0 1 5 7 3 LAND (KM) 604 635 691 774 792 877 900 959 1052 1175 1316 1468 1596 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 12 8 6 7 8 9 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 44 24 19 23 25 23 19 13 12 15 12 6 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 7. 12. 16. 17. 17. 21. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 21. 28. 38. 45. 49. 50. 55. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 107.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 08/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.20 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 50.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.63 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.3% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 29.4% 13.7% 5.2% 2.4% 13.0% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 11.8% 3.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% Consensus: 1.6% 22.5% 11.8% 2.0% 0.9% 4.4% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 08/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##