* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 08/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 52 66 77 85 88 91 93 91 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 52 66 77 85 88 91 93 91 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 63 76 86 93 93 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 0 5 6 6 4 5 6 10 9 5 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -7 -7 -5 -3 -4 -3 0 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 352 315 343 352 348 35 36 47 16 3 319 263 318 SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 160 159 159 153 150 149 148 150 150 143 140 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 79 78 79 78 74 71 68 70 71 70 64 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 6 7 8 11 12 14 17 19 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -18 -15 -16 -17 -10 -9 -9 -3 6 -2 -3 -2 200 MB DIV 34 46 44 16 -8 -2 25 72 61 52 28 29 4 700-850 TADV 2 1 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 LAND (KM) 455 500 567 702 793 962 1136 1258 1284 1220 1186 1235 1479 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 15.1 15.7 16.0 16.1 15.7 15.1 14.4 14.1 14.6 15.9 17.3 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.4 106.7 108.7 110.6 112.3 115.1 117.0 117.9 117.9 117.6 118.6 121.1 124.9 STM SPEED (KT) 23 22 19 17 15 12 7 3 1 5 11 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 41 40 21 19 26 26 25 26 26 25 21 15 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 21 CX,CY: -18/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 15.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 27. 41. 52. 60. 63. 66. 68. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 104.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 08/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.92 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.39 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.26 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 32.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.77 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.3% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.9% 53.3% 54.1% 25.2% 15.6% 54.2% 51.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 14.3% 7.4% 1.7% 0.7% 3.9% 13.5% Consensus: 5.1% 32.6% 27.5% 9.0% 5.4% 19.4% 21.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 08/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##