* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 08/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 30 37 49 59 64 68 70 72 71 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 30 37 49 59 64 68 70 72 71 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 27 30 35 38 40 41 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 8 6 5 6 7 10 7 10 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 4 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 68 41 3 28 41 358 328 329 326 326 326 330 5 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 158 161 161 162 163 160 158 153 150 147 145 150 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 79 78 76 76 72 64 62 62 64 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 18 -4 -15 -24 -36 -34 -34 -29 -40 -41 -44 -39 -22 200 MB DIV 27 33 40 53 33 19 14 4 15 26 28 40 21 700-850 TADV 7 9 9 5 8 0 3 1 3 0 0 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 589 567 542 553 566 596 714 845 907 1043 1212 1414 1637 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.4 13.7 14.8 15.7 16.3 16.5 16.3 15.8 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 97.3 98.9 100.7 102.6 106.2 109.7 112.6 115.1 117.3 119.6 121.9 124.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 17 19 19 18 16 13 12 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 16 30 26 40 23 34 23 17 21 20 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 10. 17. 29. 39. 44. 48. 50. 52. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.4 96.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 08/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 18.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.95 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 34.7% 23.2% 9.7% 4.4% 26.8% 31.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 2.3% Consensus: 2.0% 12.2% 8.0% 3.3% 1.5% 9.0% 11.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 08/22/16 18 UTC ## ##