* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 07/20/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 31 34 38 44 52 59 62 63 64 62 62 V (KT) LAND 25 29 31 34 38 44 52 59 62 63 64 62 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 19 17 15 17 13 13 9 10 6 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 3 3 0 2 -2 -2 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 43 55 60 65 58 46 43 46 55 75 92 88 92 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 156 156 156 155 153 153 153 151 144 135 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 73 72 73 73 73 72 67 63 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -3 -13 -8 -11 -28 -23 -7 -12 -16 -16 -16 -11 200 MB DIV 95 91 75 82 84 36 27 56 33 21 -13 -22 -8 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 4 5 1 1 0 2 -2 0 -1 3 LAND (KM) 730 701 684 658 624 562 542 569 609 689 733 737 828 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.9 13.6 14.3 15.1 15.8 16.6 17.3 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 100.0 100.9 101.7 102.3 103.6 105.0 106.7 108.6 110.3 112.1 113.8 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 39 28 21 21 24 35 38 14 18 16 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 13. 19. 27. 34. 37. 38. 39. 37. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 99.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 07/20/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.87 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.02 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.66 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 43.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.9% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.3% 3.4% 0.6% 0.3% 3.9% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 18.8% 6.6% 1.0% 0.2% 1.8% 8.0% Consensus: 0.6% 15.3% 8.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.9% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 07/20/16 18 UTC ##