* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962016 09/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 35 42 46 45 44 39 34 28 22 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 35 42 46 45 44 39 34 28 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 31 31 30 28 25 22 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 5 6 5 5 7 14 18 28 35 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 -8 -5 -4 -4 3 0 2 3 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 72 257 270 273 285 331 298 275 244 255 248 255 254 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 143 144 144 143 142 141 138 133 128 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 56 54 52 53 52 46 42 44 44 43 43 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 9 11 11 9 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -5 -6 -2 4 4 3 3 19 -11 -14 -23 -5 200 MB DIV 24 36 42 65 69 83 112 42 39 19 -4 -15 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 -1 0 1 0 2 -2 LAND (KM) 1931 1888 1854 1830 1828 1858 1968 2053 2106 2101 2070 2007 1919 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.5 13.3 14.2 15.4 16.8 17.9 18.7 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 138.9 139.3 139.6 139.8 139.7 139.0 137.5 136.3 135.4 135.1 135.2 135.7 136.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 2 3 7 8 8 7 7 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 21 22 20 12 11 16 18 3 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 20.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 5. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 17. 21. 20. 19. 14. 9. 3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 138.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST 09/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.75 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.75 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 131.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.41 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.93 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.2% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 47.5% 28.9% 25.0% 16.8% 31.6% 36.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 26.4% 16.7% 8.4% 5.6% 10.6% 12.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST 09/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##