* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952016 09/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 20 21 25 29 29 30 30 31 33 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 19 20 21 25 29 29 30 30 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 5 7 4 5 5 7 4 4 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 -2 -4 -6 -5 -2 -1 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 139 160 164 166 183 212 221 226 232 270 302 350 7 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 148 150 152 152 152 150 151 151 152 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 53 50 51 51 51 48 48 45 45 45 47 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 7 6 6 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -2 4 12 12 22 29 16 17 8 12 7 0 200 MB DIV 10 3 4 0 -5 3 -7 -19 -7 15 14 18 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1858 1785 1712 1640 1576 1470 1382 1298 1252 1207 1192 1177 1163 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.1 11.4 10.9 10.2 9.6 9.1 8.9 8.9 LONG(DEG W) 139.0 139.6 140.3 141.1 141.9 143.4 145.0 146.6 148.2 149.8 151.1 152.0 152.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 9 7 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 21 26 29 27 23 25 40 57 53 43 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -14. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 5. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 139.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952016 INVEST 09/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 128.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 28.7% 20.5% 5.1% 2.6% 22.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 10.0% 7.0% 1.7% 0.9% 7.5% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952016 INVEST 09/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##