* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952016 08/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 28 29 32 31 32 29 27 26 25 23 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 28 29 32 31 32 29 27 26 25 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 5 7 7 9 11 9 15 14 17 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 1 0 3 3 5 1 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 283 293 259 229 253 216 273 233 255 245 241 251 258 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.3 26.4 27.2 26.7 26.1 26.3 26.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 139 137 135 126 128 137 131 125 127 125 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 53 51 47 46 45 46 47 46 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -5 -1 -1 0 13 26 21 15 16 30 42 30 200 MB DIV 15 19 34 30 15 26 3 4 7 12 14 -7 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 3 4 3 2 0 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 1632 1685 1714 1745 1788 1884 2057 2153 1886 1629 1396 1183 1007 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.7 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.4 126.1 126.9 127.8 129.6 131.9 134.4 136.9 139.3 141.5 143.5 145.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 11 9 8 2 0 13 10 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.6 124.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952016 INVEST 08/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.70 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.62 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 171.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.27 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 21.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.73 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.7% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 5.1% 6.1% 2.7% 1.3% 4.1% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 8.7% 6.7% 0.9% 0.4% 1.4% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952016 INVEST 08/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##