* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952016 08/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 34 34 33 29 26 25 25 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 34 34 33 29 26 25 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 27 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 12 11 7 11 11 16 15 19 14 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 2 2 1 1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 319 289 280 282 254 250 225 267 254 260 248 271 288 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.5 26.3 27.2 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 140 137 129 127 137 137 132 128 126 122 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 53 52 50 47 47 45 47 47 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 5 2 -1 -5 0 7 18 27 25 24 38 55 53 200 MB DIV 12 8 14 21 28 17 25 9 18 17 21 5 7 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -1 0 2 4 5 4 4 2 4 LAND (KM) 1544 1608 1663 1703 1735 1828 1975 2163 1990 1726 1470 1216 985 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.6 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.9 19.3 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 123.2 124.3 125.3 126.3 127.2 129.0 131.1 133.4 135.9 138.4 140.8 143.2 145.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 20 16 9 8 3 6 12 10 0 0 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 4. 1. 0. 1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 123.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952016 INVEST 08/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.72 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.16 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.67 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 172.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.42 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 43.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.46 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 7.6% 9.2% 4.6% 2.3% 5.9% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 10.1% 7.8% 1.6% 0.8% 2.0% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952016 INVEST 08/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##