* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952016 08/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 24 24 22 21 19 17 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 24 24 22 21 19 17 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 9 7 1 5 13 18 19 15 16 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 2 -1 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 21 11 349 5 292 172 143 163 157 189 182 212 209 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.6 25.3 24.4 24.4 24.1 23.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 140 138 136 136 130 116 107 107 104 101 103 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 56 56 53 47 43 39 35 31 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 12 14 5 17 14 7 8 3 -7 -1 1 200 MB DIV 28 15 2 1 17 19 6 0 1 -5 -3 4 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 5 6 9 8 9 8 LAND (KM) 1275 1287 1308 1326 1359 1430 1495 1611 1739 1926 2033 1840 1625 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.8 19.0 19.9 20.7 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.2 120.0 120.9 121.9 123.9 126.1 128.3 130.3 132.6 134.9 137.3 139.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 10 11 12 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 15 10 7 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -3. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.9 118.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952016 INVEST 08/14/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 119.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.39 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.2% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952016 INVEST 08/14/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##