* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 11/13/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 31 29 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 31 29 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 32 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 35 39 42 42 42 38 33 31 29 31 34 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 0 0 2 2 5 8 8 8 5 8 SHEAR DIR 218 211 212 222 226 240 256 260 262 258 248 242 240 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 166 166 168 167 166 166 167 167 164 160 155 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 7 9 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 53 48 47 44 44 44 49 51 52 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 15 4 -12 -17 -10 -24 -19 -35 -40 -24 -6 -6 200 MB DIV 38 42 32 34 28 -8 -22 -26 -21 -21 -10 -21 -16 700-850 TADV 7 6 4 4 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 -1 LAND (KM) 286 231 167 121 76 66 47 36 -14 -83 -158 -256 -198 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.6 20.6 20.1 19.8 19.5 19.4 19.4 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.0 106.7 106.6 106.4 106.3 106.1 105.9 105.1 103.6 101.7 99.9 98.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 6 4 1 2 2 6 8 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 16 15 15 16 17 17 12 5 40 50 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -24. -33. -39. -42. -43. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -9. -16. -24. -33. -40. -46. -48. -49. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.9 107.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 11/13/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 125.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.94 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 26.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 7.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 11/13/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##