* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 11/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 26 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 26 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 27 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 30 33 34 32 36 40 38 34 30 34 31 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 13 14 11 7 2 1 2 1 5 1 6 4 SHEAR DIR 218 207 214 217 214 215 223 241 258 249 260 258 249 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 163 164 164 165 166 167 166 165 169 170 166 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 67 64 62 61 58 49 45 41 41 41 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 11 8 6 4 4 3 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 36 38 26 16 0 -21 -25 -26 -5 -5 6 -7 200 MB DIV 74 68 59 53 55 34 17 -8 -23 -29 -23 -3 24 700-850 TADV 4 4 2 5 7 2 3 1 4 4 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 629 560 475 390 299 143 63 56 104 135 99 12 -223 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.8 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.5 20.7 21.1 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 108.9 108.3 107.7 107.1 106.2 106.0 106.2 106.7 107.0 106.6 105.4 103.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 6 4 2 2 0 4 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 31 31 26 18 18 18 19 18 19 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -21. -30. -36. -40. -40. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -10. -18. -25. -33. -39. -43. -46. -46. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 109.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 11/12/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 83.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 11/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##