* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 11/12/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 20 24 27 30 36 36 33 27 21 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 11 8 10 12 8 1 0 0 1 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 219 215 204 198 197 214 209 228 230 249 252 250 250 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 160 163 165 168 167 166 164 166 166 165 163 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 7 6 8 5 8 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 71 68 65 63 54 49 42 40 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 10 7 5 4 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 29 24 30 37 10 -20 -51 -51 -58 -34 -23 -16 200 MB DIV 105 107 86 80 56 42 27 22 -12 -31 -29 -25 -5 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 1 3 3 2 0 2 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 817 777 716 633 540 324 78 -78 -104 -75 21 116 116 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.3 16.7 18.6 20.0 20.5 20.1 19.5 19.1 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 109.9 109.4 108.7 107.8 106.3 105.1 104.5 104.3 104.6 105.3 106.1 106.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 9 10 11 9 6 0 4 5 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 22 30 44 48 20 42 42 42 17 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 30. 33. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -15. -23. -28. -30. -29. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -17. -21. -25. -29. -30. -28. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 110.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 11/12/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 59.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.52 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 6.5% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 2.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 11/12/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##