* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 11/11/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 24 24 29 37 45 49 44 39 27 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 12 10 11 12 11 0 -4 -2 4 7 11 8 SHEAR DIR 227 215 211 198 198 213 220 228 241 256 275 280 269 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.3 29.9 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 162 165 165 167 169 167 162 160 163 164 164 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 70 70 65 60 55 49 46 40 39 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 10 7 6 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 24 32 31 38 11 -25 -34 -47 -70 -92 -95 -67 200 MB DIV 87 110 117 110 105 56 38 8 -19 -44 -23 -15 -18 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 5 7 5 6 2 0 0 2 3 2 LAND (KM) 738 676 615 533 437 226 -31 -130 -259 -346 -259 -122 -53 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.1 17.5 19.8 21.5 22.2 21.6 20.4 19.6 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.7 109.3 108.8 108.1 107.3 105.9 104.9 104.0 102.9 101.9 102.1 103.1 103.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 8 6 6 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 28 41 48 34 40 0 0 0 0 41 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -21. -33. -41. -45. -43. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -5. -11. -19. -26. -34. -42. -45. -42. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 109.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 11/11/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 57.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.58 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 11/11/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##