* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 11/10/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 23 21 18 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 23 21 18 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 25 24 22 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 23 24 23 26 27 28 26 29 27 26 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 11 10 10 9 8 9 5 3 1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 268 244 239 231 226 209 204 216 226 221 219 223 229 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.8 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 148 150 154 157 162 164 163 163 163 161 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 67 65 70 68 66 61 57 52 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 10 10 9 8 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 5 7 18 27 33 38 31 24 19 6 -15 -2 -9 200 MB DIV 43 45 61 58 71 90 48 27 16 34 41 31 8 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 3 4 0 3 LAND (KM) 989 1023 1031 1016 993 900 786 644 485 347 279 288 353 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.7 16.0 17.5 18.7 19.3 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.8 112.1 112.0 111.8 110.9 109.8 108.6 107.9 107.6 107.7 108.2 109.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 2 2 3 5 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 18 18 16 13 18 33 46 32 22 18 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 963 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. -23. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 5. 2. 1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -10. -11. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 111.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 11/10/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 60.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 13.5% 3.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.8% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 11/10/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##