* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 11/10/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 21 20 23 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 21 20 23 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 20 20 22 28 30 36 47 50 51 59 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 20 19 13 10 10 6 8 3 4 0 -1 -9 -6 SHEAR DIR 278 286 266 255 244 229 215 201 196 213 218 227 228 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.5 30.5 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 156 157 160 163 163 164 166 168 168 164 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -55.1 -54.8 -55.2 -54.8 -55.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 6 7 4 5 700-500 MB RH 67 70 74 73 74 72 69 65 58 54 50 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 10 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -7 1 6 0 7 23 27 24 10 20 -13 -27 200 MB DIV 67 67 76 63 40 56 87 89 86 46 21 25 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 1 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 899 877 843 804 761 671 560 449 326 246 204 142 75 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.4 15.6 17.0 18.5 19.9 21.2 22.2 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.7 108.8 108.8 108.7 108.6 108.5 108.4 108.1 108.0 107.5 107.3 107.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 4 4 5 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 31 41 47 46 42 35 38 32 21 20 23 23 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 823 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -13. -23. -32. -40. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 3. 4. 2. -5. -11. -15. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 108.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 11/10/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.55 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 15.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.54 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.4% 4.4% 1.7% 0.9% 3.7% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 16.9% 7.7% 2.5% 0.9% 4.6% 10.0% Consensus: 0.4% 7.4% 4.0% 1.4% 0.6% 2.8% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 11/10/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##