* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 11/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 24 22 25 27 27 34 37 46 52 56 56 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 17 19 19 15 11 8 9 1 1 -9 -6 -11 SHEAR DIR 275 282 282 280 276 255 238 219 208 199 213 217 223 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.2 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 155 157 158 160 163 163 163 165 166 165 162 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -55.2 -55.0 -55.5 -55.1 -55.4 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 5 6 3 700-500 MB RH 57 60 63 67 70 74 73 68 64 61 57 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -15 -12 -9 0 -9 -5 16 20 11 1 2 -16 200 MB DIV 54 49 43 63 67 45 53 74 78 64 49 33 27 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 924 915 886 839 793 681 587 461 352 260 255 180 82 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.0 14.1 15.2 16.7 18.1 19.5 20.9 22.3 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.0 108.3 108.4 108.4 108.3 108.4 108.3 108.1 108.0 108.1 107.9 107.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 6 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 37 46 49 42 42 38 24 21 25 28 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 814 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -16. -25. -34. -42. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -4. -8. -15. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.9 107.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 11/09/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 46.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.78 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 9.2% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 6.0% Consensus: 0.3% 3.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 11/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##