* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 09/11/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 49 57 70 75 80 80 75 70 68 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 49 57 70 75 80 80 75 70 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 46 56 65 71 71 66 61 57 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 7 4 3 3 4 2 3 14 11 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -3 -4 -1 -3 0 -1 2 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 60 62 66 63 88 301 78 223 254 25 83 128 278 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 155 152 148 141 136 133 128 127 128 130 135 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 58 58 58 60 57 55 51 46 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 15 16 17 21 22 25 25 22 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 15 7 2 6 8 -8 -14 -28 -33 -26 -3 19 25 200 MB DIV 35 36 44 50 49 25 59 56 8 0 20 -24 -19 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 1 2 0 0 2 5 LAND (KM) 1143 1123 1117 1124 1143 1166 1167 1128 1078 1099 1221 1363 1549 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 6 4 4 3 5 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 37 44 33 23 20 24 21 14 8 4 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 20.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 12. 13. 17. 16. 12. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 27. 40. 46. 50. 50. 45. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 114.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 09/11/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.81 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.43 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 172.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 28.3% 20.8% 14.2% 0.0% 16.8% 17.0% Logistic: 11.2% 23.9% 27.1% 7.9% 4.2% 29.0% 15.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 24.7% 10.0% 2.4% 0.8% 1.9% 2.8% Consensus: 7.3% 25.7% 19.3% 8.2% 1.7% 15.9% 11.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 09/11/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##