* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 09/10/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 38 49 58 69 75 73 75 72 67 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 38 49 58 69 75 73 75 72 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 38 45 52 54 53 51 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 5 7 8 2 3 4 6 5 5 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -6 -4 0 -1 0 -3 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 59 67 72 60 62 131 314 228 251 236 125 110 97 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 157 156 153 146 140 136 131 128 128 132 137 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 62 60 59 60 60 56 52 48 41 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 14 16 18 22 24 23 25 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 21 13 8 4 4 0 -16 -13 -37 -23 -15 12 43 200 MB DIV 35 38 40 30 42 49 44 69 33 18 21 8 -30 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 3 4 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1227 1207 1198 1207 1230 1258 1283 1259 1188 1181 1258 1408 1618 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 8 5 5 4 3 6 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 33 37 31 26 24 21 13 7 4 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 15. 16. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 13. 24. 33. 44. 50. 48. 50. 47. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 114.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 09/10/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.48 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.33 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 121.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.42 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.7% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 8.9% 9.4% 1.7% 0.7% 11.2% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 1.1% 13.0% 9.5% 0.6% 0.3% 3.8% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 09/10/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##