* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 09/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 30 40 52 65 74 81 83 80 79 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 30 40 52 65 74 81 83 80 79 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 28 35 43 53 62 67 67 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 7 7 9 6 5 2 3 5 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -6 -4 -1 -3 -2 -5 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 106 71 60 49 47 62 68 81 351 102 132 122 126 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.6 26.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 155 158 160 160 157 151 145 141 138 131 125 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -52.1 -52.7 -51.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 75 72 71 71 69 63 58 55 55 58 57 53 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 13 14 18 20 23 25 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 22 18 13 17 17 19 13 12 0 -10 -17 -19 -3 200 MB DIV 33 27 28 26 32 38 55 68 49 68 17 39 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1025 1047 1064 1067 1080 1125 1124 1160 1201 1148 1061 954 923 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.7 12.2 13.4 14.4 15.4 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.6 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.4 110.2 111.0 111.8 113.7 115.8 117.7 119.0 119.3 118.9 118.7 119.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 8 5 4 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 15 16 26 46 33 24 17 12 10 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 15. 18. 19. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 20. 32. 45. 54. 61. 63. 60. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.6 108.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 09/09/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 54.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 16.5% 20.3% 3.3% 1.6% 25.4% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.7% 7.2% 7.2% 1.2% 0.6% 8.5% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 09/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##