* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 09/09/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 49 59 69 75 81 82 78 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 49 59 69 75 81 82 78 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 27 31 37 44 53 63 69 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 5 3 7 9 12 10 8 6 5 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -7 -6 -3 -3 -3 -5 -3 -2 -4 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 86 105 131 34 33 43 66 61 55 58 102 192 176 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 153 154 157 157 157 154 151 145 138 129 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 -52.9 -53.6 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 74 72 71 66 60 58 58 58 55 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 13 16 18 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 17 20 21 23 20 24 23 17 14 1 -16 -28 -25 200 MB DIV 7 28 38 35 46 41 50 80 65 60 51 38 24 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1063 1086 1120 1146 1169 1233 1287 1287 1277 1236 1132 979 862 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.6 12.3 13.1 14.1 15.1 16.3 17.7 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.3 110.0 110.8 111.6 113.2 114.9 116.5 117.8 118.4 118.3 117.9 118.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 14 14 15 15 16 29 39 30 18 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 32. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 29. 39. 49. 55. 61. 62. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.2 108.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 09/09/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 33.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.58 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 19.7% 17.4% 4.2% 2.0% 20.7% 11.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% Consensus: 1.4% 8.1% 6.1% 1.5% 0.7% 6.9% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 09/09/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##