* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 08/01/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 38 45 51 57 62 61 62 62 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 34 38 45 51 57 62 61 62 62 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 45 48 49 50 51 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 10 8 10 10 10 9 11 8 8 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -2 -4 0 -2 -6 -4 -3 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 18 31 27 22 1 349 338 283 285 286 299 276 283 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 146 148 148 149 149 148 149 151 149 143 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 75 76 73 75 73 73 70 69 68 69 68 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 10 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 3 -3 -14 -39 -60 -53 -48 -38 -31 -28 -29 200 MB DIV 44 50 33 21 32 43 34 39 37 30 12 27 36 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 2 0 -4 0 3 0 -4 -3 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1090 1118 1172 1260 1288 1437 1622 1841 2092 2332 2155 1906 1710 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.2 13.9 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.6 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 111.1 112.5 114.0 115.6 119.0 122.6 126.0 129.4 132.5 135.2 137.6 139.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 17 17 17 16 14 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 15 15 19 20 17 18 28 32 34 26 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 20. 27. 32. 37. 36. 37. 37. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 109.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 08/01/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.32 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 63.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.56 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.2% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 10.2% 6.7% 1.4% 0.6% 7.1% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 11.1% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% Consensus: 0.5% 14.2% 8.3% 0.7% 0.2% 2.4% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 08/01/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##