* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 08/01/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 37 42 47 48 49 48 48 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 37 42 47 48 49 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 27 28 30 31 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 13 11 13 15 11 8 8 6 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 -5 -3 -5 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 21 27 31 24 20 4 354 347 324 313 308 302 279 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.5 28.4 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 147 147 152 151 154 151 149 149 149 146 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 73 74 73 74 68 72 69 69 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 23 15 0 -10 -28 -46 -58 -57 -46 -34 -32 -39 200 MB DIV 49 41 47 39 26 54 50 45 34 40 17 6 6 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 1 1 -5 -1 0 0 -4 -4 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1105 1167 1233 1313 1407 1515 1696 1852 2027 2178 2323 2192 1931 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.9 14.4 15.3 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.5 111.9 113.4 114.9 118.0 121.2 124.3 127.2 129.8 132.2 134.6 136.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 16 16 14 14 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 20 19 20 19 24 28 21 25 32 28 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 22. 27. 28. 29. 28. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 109.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 08/01/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 45.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.42 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 6.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 08/01/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##