* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP922016 06/06/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 28 27 27 27 31 33 35 39 41 44 47 V (KT) LAND 30 30 28 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 20 25 25 16 13 8 11 10 11 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -1 -2 -6 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 181 179 172 168 169 171 151 132 121 101 110 124 185 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.1 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 167 162 160 159 159 160 160 158 156 153 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 68 66 68 68 74 75 74 73 74 71 72 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -5 2 9 6 17 40 54 43 36 44 42 50 38 200 MB DIV 78 60 49 46 53 64 65 88 104 98 51 71 29 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 -2 -3 0 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 171 56 2 -76 -128 -100 -100 -100 -100 -68 -38 -92 -228 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.2 16.0 16.7 17.2 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.8 18.1 18.7 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 97.2 96.3 95.3 94.3 93.4 91.8 91.2 91.2 91.9 93.2 94.9 96.8 98.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 5 1 1 5 7 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 44 33 43 41 47 19 14 14 19 24 31 15 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 10 CX,CY: 7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 14. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 97.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 ONE 06/06/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.55 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 55.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.94 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 4.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 2.0% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 14.1% 4.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 3.3% Consensus: 3.3% 6.1% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 ONE 06/06/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##