* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 06/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 25 25 25 27 27 29 33 37 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 23 25 26 27 27 30 34 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 23 25 26 26 27 30 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 20 21 23 28 23 21 13 13 10 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 158 170 175 178 181 185 182 175 172 152 143 132 138 SST (C) 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.7 30.6 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 172 172 172 162 158 157 155 156 156 156 156 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 64 64 64 69 71 72 71 71 69 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 4 3 3 5 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 8 0 -6 -1 7 14 26 37 45 48 56 47 55 200 MB DIV 78 77 73 64 55 45 50 63 75 92 113 78 59 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 1 -2 1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 364 277 166 67 -34 -124 -50 -36 -8 17 22 -50 -212 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.6 14.5 15.3 16.1 17.2 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.5 18.7 18.8 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 99.1 98.7 98.1 97.5 96.7 95.3 93.9 93.2 93.0 93.6 94.7 96.4 98.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 8 5 3 1 4 6 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 54 54 45 36 47 46 31 26 23 4 16 18 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 13. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -12. -13. -13. -12. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 99.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 06/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.3 40.3 to 144.5 1.00 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 47.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.62 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.08 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.55 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 70.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.63 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.0% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 4.7% 6.9% 2.0% 1.1% 5.0% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 6.7% 7.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.8% 1.7% Consensus: 0.9% 13.8% 11.4% 1.0% 0.5% 1.9% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 06/06/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##