* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 06/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 30 30 28 29 28 30 35 36 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 30 27 27 30 29 31 35 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 28 25 26 27 27 26 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 5 6 13 18 26 27 23 23 15 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 1 4 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 50 60 81 153 177 191 186 190 179 184 167 154 140 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.9 31.0 30.8 30.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 171 171 171 170 157 156 154 155 155 155 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -53.2 -52.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 9 7 9 7 9 6 9 7 700-500 MB RH 60 60 62 63 65 66 66 68 70 71 72 71 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 4 5 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 30 31 21 10 0 -5 0 27 50 65 61 87 76 200 MB DIV 107 90 81 72 54 59 46 38 85 95 110 109 97 700-850 TADV 2 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 625 561 485 388 285 87 -85 -63 3 30 62 43 -70 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.4 12.0 12.7 13.5 15.1 16.6 17.7 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 100.5 100.2 99.8 99.2 98.6 97.4 96.0 94.8 93.9 93.7 94.1 95.2 96.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 10 10 10 9 6 4 1 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 43 46 54 56 37 44 40 10 12 20 14 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 13. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 4. 3. 5. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 100.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 06/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.5 40.3 to 144.5 1.00 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 48.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.64 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.80 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.63 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 86.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.35 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 55.9% 32.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.1% 21.5% 34.5% 4.8% 2.8% 37.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 9.5% 5.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 29.0% 24.0% 1.8% 1.0% 12.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 06/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##