* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 10/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 20 22 24 27 33 34 44 54 53 56 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 0 -1 0 0 6 8 0 6 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 271 270 259 258 253 244 257 247 278 289 291 284 267 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.8 27.0 25.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 150 149 149 151 150 148 141 133 121 100 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 64 60 59 58 56 55 54 53 53 48 46 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 20 30 25 36 32 47 21 -7 -40 -50 -77 200 MB DIV 8 8 30 57 54 60 44 27 7 -11 -36 -12 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 5 -1 5 0 LAND (KM) 1154 1090 1024 985 967 953 908 829 770 690 626 473 271 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.7 14.3 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.3 16.2 17.2 18.6 20.0 22.0 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 113.6 113.5 113.3 113.1 113.0 113.2 113.5 114.2 114.8 115.5 115.8 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 3 2 2 4 5 7 8 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 38 40 37 34 32 31 25 18 13 7 14 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -13. -22. -31. -39. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -13. -19. -28. -34. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 113.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 10/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 105.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.7 81.4 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 10/19/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##