* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 11/11/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 34 38 42 44 45 38 36 34 33 30 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 7 5 2 10 9 4 2 2 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 227 218 209 206 197 200 213 212 226 225 238 242 248 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 155 156 161 163 163 164 164 162 159 153 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.2 -54.7 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 8 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 68 64 64 64 64 62 59 56 50 41 38 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 26 33 38 36 34 18 13 -22 -18 -17 -8 -14 200 MB DIV 72 82 97 96 82 59 30 29 28 15 -2 -11 -23 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 3 4 5 0 6 1 2 LAND (KM) 839 820 791 752 713 585 444 295 232 226 338 289 230 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.9 18.9 19.6 19.9 20.3 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.1 111.0 110.8 110.5 109.3 108.1 107.3 107.3 107.7 108.9 109.9 110.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 4 7 7 6 5 4 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 16 16 22 34 25 18 16 14 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 799 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -18. -27. -35. -40. -43. -41. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -17. -22. -25. -27. -28. -26. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 111.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 11/11/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 91.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 11/11/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##