* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 11/11/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 22 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 29 32 36 40 45 42 38 37 35 34 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 8 9 6 5 13 6 2 0 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 245 234 226 216 212 203 211 216 214 219 227 236 243 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 154 154 158 161 162 163 164 162 158 152 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 69 64 61 61 60 59 58 55 51 43 39 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 12 10 8 7 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 25 31 30 34 38 35 31 12 11 -26 -9 -20 -8 200 MB DIV 75 70 77 85 93 80 45 19 29 33 15 -11 -11 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 8 2 3 4 5 2 LAND (KM) 854 830 802 768 731 636 521 375 292 269 342 300 261 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.3 111.3 111.2 111.0 110.2 109.1 108.0 107.7 108.0 108.9 110.1 110.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 4 3 5 6 6 4 4 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 16 16 17 24 25 18 14 13 12 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 827 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -2. -8. -16. -25. -34. -40. -44. -43. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -14. -22. -28. -32. -35. -35. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 111.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 11/11/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.64 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 11/11/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##