* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 11/09/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 17 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 17 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 24 25 25 28 31 38 49 52 55 56 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 17 20 18 14 11 10 7 6 1 2 -5 -3 -12 SHEAR DIR 273 283 285 275 268 239 234 215 204 207 218 227 234 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.4 30.6 30.4 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 156 158 159 161 163 163 164 168 170 167 165 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -54.8 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 65 69 74 75 74 70 67 63 57 52 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -11 -10 5 7 -7 8 20 11 9 -4 -17 -42 200 MB DIV 54 47 61 68 48 36 63 81 77 68 39 19 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 907 881 847 802 758 651 539 411 286 208 173 67 -37 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.2 14.3 15.6 17.3 19.0 20.4 21.7 22.6 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.9 108.1 108.1 108.1 108.1 108.2 108.2 108.0 107.7 107.3 106.7 106.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 6 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 37 42 45 41 44 30 20 21 23 21 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -15. -24. -34. -43. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -2. -4. -10. -16. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.2 107.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 11/09/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 26.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 13.3% 4.1% 1.0% 0.3% 1.4% 8.2% Consensus: 0.3% 5.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 11/09/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##