* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 09/10/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 40 53 65 73 79 80 77 72 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 40 53 65 73 79 80 77 72 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 40 51 60 64 62 58 54 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 5 5 6 1 9 9 8 7 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -5 -6 -4 0 0 0 -4 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 62 64 67 91 84 51 143 270 216 218 156 116 124 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.0 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 160 158 156 152 144 136 131 126 125 126 125 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 64 61 59 56 55 56 51 46 40 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 15 17 20 24 25 26 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 25 28 28 25 18 11 12 -2 -8 -24 -1 11 31 200 MB DIV 21 41 44 45 44 48 77 41 57 24 28 25 11 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1187 1229 1219 1218 1228 1259 1264 1259 1245 1239 1233 1247 1284 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 6 4 2 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 20 32 39 31 22 18 8 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 20. 20. 17. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 15. 28. 40. 48. 54. 55. 53. 47. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 113.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 09/10/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.32 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.47 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.34 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 102.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.5% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 11.5% 9.6% 1.4% 0.5% 9.7% 6.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Consensus: 1.0% 12.8% 9.3% 0.5% 0.2% 3.2% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 09/10/16 06 UTC ## ##