* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 09/10/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 41 53 67 76 84 83 81 74 68 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 41 53 67 76 84 83 81 74 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 37 46 58 69 75 73 66 60 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 8 9 8 6 1 7 7 10 7 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -6 -8 -6 -2 2 0 -2 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 61 62 67 63 74 63 87 197 151 223 145 176 116 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 160 158 155 148 142 137 132 127 128 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 65 64 60 58 55 53 50 47 41 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 14 17 20 24 25 26 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 18 25 27 27 27 15 18 9 3 -13 -7 0 35 200 MB DIV 10 26 45 39 39 34 60 70 52 44 6 16 5 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1160 1191 1224 1224 1238 1293 1315 1344 1346 1308 1222 1271 1398 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 12 12 10 9 8 5 4 3 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 17 19 31 37 28 20 15 9 3 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 19. 19. 19. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 28. 42. 51. 59. 58. 56. 49. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 112.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 09/10/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.41 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.29 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 90.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.73 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.2% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 23.1% 13.7% 3.3% 1.3% 13.7% 10.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 2.1% 16.9% 10.3% 1.2% 0.4% 4.7% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 09/10/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##