* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 09/08/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 41 47 53 59 61 65 66 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 41 47 53 59 61 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 31 36 41 47 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 5 1 6 10 10 11 9 12 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -5 0 -3 -2 -4 -2 -3 0 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 91 105 132 157 313 37 40 50 39 61 64 87 90 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 153 154 154 153 151 150 150 149 151 153 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 77 74 72 69 65 61 61 60 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 9 9 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 13 15 15 12 16 17 16 9 -1 -6 -25 -34 -46 200 MB DIV -3 0 27 29 19 24 28 45 37 44 57 53 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 0 -2 -3 -5 -4 -4 -4 -6 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 1036 1062 1109 1155 1209 1343 1460 1523 1558 1573 1551 1503 1396 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.6 12.1 12.6 13.0 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.9 109.8 110.8 111.8 113.8 115.6 117.3 118.7 119.6 119.9 119.7 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 4 2 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 14 14 13 14 14 17 24 29 33 37 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 21. 27. 33. 39. 41. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.2 108.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 09/08/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 29.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 21.5% 9.9% 2.5% 1.2% 14.8% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 8.7% 3.7% 0.9% 0.4% 4.9% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 09/08/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##