* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 08/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 40 47 56 60 62 63 63 63 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 40 47 56 60 62 63 63 63 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 41 43 45 46 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 13 13 11 5 0 5 6 7 8 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -1 0 -4 0 -6 -6 -3 -4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 36 29 36 34 31 18 268 250 261 284 285 316 290 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 28.1 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 147 143 141 138 135 147 149 143 138 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 73 72 71 70 63 62 59 61 60 62 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 -15 -29 -46 -48 -46 -38 -24 -23 -33 -43 -46 200 MB DIV 38 41 44 35 21 16 1 11 38 26 32 24 24 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 0 2 1 5 4 -2 -2 0 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 1190 1195 1215 1258 1338 1482 1725 1974 2266 2032 1800 1614 1475 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.4 14.9 16.0 16.5 16.6 16.2 15.8 15.3 15.1 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.9 116.4 117.9 119.6 123.0 126.5 129.9 133.1 136.0 138.4 140.3 141.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 16 17 17 17 16 15 13 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 18 17 19 5 13 7 24 30 23 13 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 22. 31. 35. 37. 38. 38. 38. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 113.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 08/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.77 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.63 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.32 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 87.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.71 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 12.3% 6.1% 2.9% 1.4% 5.6% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 8.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% Consensus: 0.7% 13.7% 7.2% 1.2% 0.5% 2.0% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 08/02/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##