* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 08/02/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 42 51 61 67 70 70 70 68 65 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 42 51 61 67 70 70 70 68 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 36 41 48 53 57 60 61 60 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 13 11 11 9 2 5 4 7 6 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 26 38 35 37 30 20 331 273 242 267 252 290 278 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.9 27.4 28.0 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 146 148 147 144 146 140 146 150 146 139 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 75 74 72 71 68 65 63 65 63 63 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 -5 -19 -37 -56 -43 -33 -21 -15 -20 -39 -41 200 MB DIV 39 39 39 45 31 15 45 10 31 29 24 37 32 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 0 0 3 5 5 0 -3 2 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 1148 1216 1224 1264 1334 1504 1705 1951 2209 2158 1872 1630 1435 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.8 15.5 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.9 115.3 116.9 118.5 122.0 125.3 128.7 131.9 134.9 137.7 140.1 142.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 16 15 14 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 18 16 18 12 21 22 19 27 26 14 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 17. 26. 36. 42. 45. 45. 45. 43. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 112.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 08/02/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.78 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.22 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.34 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.0% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 10.7% 10.8% 3.1% 1.5% 9.6% 20.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 20.4% 7.9% 1.9% 0.7% 1.8% 6.3% Consensus: 1.0% 18.4% 11.5% 1.7% 0.7% 3.8% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 08/02/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##