* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 43 49 52 50 48 46 45 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 43 49 52 50 48 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 29 31 33 35 37 36 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 2 2 3 1 3 3 6 5 4 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 4 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 124 145 116 62 44 299 344 113 221 268 218 169 148 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 150 149 147 144 144 145 146 147 149 150 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 43 42 43 44 45 46 50 52 50 48 46 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 44 37 30 25 23 29 24 44 56 58 70 74 200 MB DIV 41 39 26 19 17 27 66 50 69 38 30 20 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 2 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1911 1977 2029 2072 2095 2132 2161 2160 2162 2173 2161 2114 2112 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.0 11.1 10.8 10.5 10.3 10.2 9.7 LONG(DEG W) 122.1 123.0 123.8 124.6 125.2 126.2 126.7 126.8 126.5 126.3 125.9 125.1 124.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 36 32 29 26 19 16 15 17 20 22 28 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 24. 27. 25. 23. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 122.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.45 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.27 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 207.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.61 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.11 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.7% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 33.2% 21.5% 7.2% 3.4% 23.5% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 19.7% 13.7% 2.4% 1.2% 7.8% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/06/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##