* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 05/31/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 40 51 61 68 71 76 78 76 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 40 51 61 68 71 76 78 76 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 28 33 39 45 50 55 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 13 11 8 7 6 6 0 2 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 1 4 4 4 4 2 5 3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 105 103 92 81 62 69 55 49 68 275 68 46 23 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 158 158 159 162 162 162 162 159 157 156 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 70 67 66 66 64 63 62 62 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 8 6 5 5 6 7 9 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 36 35 30 23 27 42 37 41 43 45 38 200 MB DIV 37 41 61 80 100 113 119 98 58 22 39 36 53 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1271 1279 1302 1330 1358 1450 1581 1714 1860 1973 2010 2004 1953 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.3 7.9 7.4 7.1 7.3 7.9 9.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.2 110.7 111.2 111.7 112.9 114.2 115.6 117.0 118.4 119.5 120.4 121.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 64 65 67 72 77 86 73 37 25 23 22 25 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 13. 14. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 31. 41. 48. 51. 56. 58. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.8 109.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 05/31/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 69.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.91 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 54.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.74 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 11.2% 10.8% 2.8% 1.4% 18.8% 17.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.9% 3.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 1.6% Consensus: 1.4% 6.0% 4.6% 1.1% 0.5% 6.5% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 05/31/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##