* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 07/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 40 49 58 62 65 64 62 61 58 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 40 49 58 62 65 64 62 61 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 32 34 39 43 47 50 52 54 56 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 18 17 18 17 16 13 12 10 10 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 -2 -4 -4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 43 43 51 52 48 56 50 51 52 65 74 73 76 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 27.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 156 156 153 152 151 152 154 152 141 133 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 75 75 73 72 73 73 70 64 62 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 6 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR -1 3 0 -1 -11 -29 -11 -14 -17 -22 -20 -20 -18 200 MB DIV 90 85 85 78 75 45 56 49 30 -9 -17 -28 -18 700-850 TADV -1 2 3 3 2 1 0 1 0 -3 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 703 698 681 666 651 647 669 685 675 716 664 687 778 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.8 11.4 12.0 12.4 13.0 13.4 14.0 15.0 16.2 17.4 18.2 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 100.6 101.9 102.9 103.9 104.6 105.9 107.0 108.2 109.4 110.9 112.5 114.3 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 8 6 6 7 8 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 33 20 21 23 28 51 51 23 14 19 15 20 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 24. 33. 37. 40. 39. 37. 36. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 100.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 07/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.33 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.09 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.64 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 38.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.4% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 19.8% 15.4% 7.3% 4.5% 15.2% 20.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 28.4% 17.1% 3.7% 1.4% 17.1% 26.0% Consensus: 2.6% 24.9% 16.5% 3.7% 1.9% 10.8% 15.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 07/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##