* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 08/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 27 35 41 46 49 53 56 58 54 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 27 35 41 46 49 53 56 58 54 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 26 28 29 31 33 35 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 15 20 14 12 6 8 6 2 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -3 -2 0 4 -1 -4 -6 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 39 3 335 327 332 324 295 257 242 249 19 117 139 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 159 157 157 156 158 158 159 157 152 146 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 79 76 76 76 77 77 77 79 79 78 74 68 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 10 11 12 13 15 15 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 14 21 16 17 15 13 5 3 2 7 1 200 MB DIV 49 48 42 57 47 90 67 67 48 44 31 49 11 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1077 1114 1154 1200 1244 1288 1332 1319 1291 1181 1052 913 797 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 10.1 10.3 11.0 11.9 13.3 14.7 16.1 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.2 109.8 110.5 111.2 112.2 113.1 113.7 114.2 114.8 115.0 114.9 114.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 5 6 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 37 39 42 43 43 45 51 62 73 50 45 30 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 36. 38. 34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 08/30/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 08/30/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##