* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 07/12/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 50 49 47 44 42 41 39 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 50 49 47 44 42 41 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 37 39 42 43 42 40 37 34 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 5 8 10 8 10 9 9 9 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -4 -3 -4 -5 -1 -2 0 -3 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 339 26 78 125 139 165 193 175 184 181 183 181 189 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.5 26.7 26.0 25.6 25.3 25.1 25.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 144 142 138 129 122 118 115 112 112 112 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 76 73 70 68 64 59 56 56 57 54 55 52 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 118 107 104 100 95 97 72 58 50 47 52 47 54 200 MB DIV 93 81 87 67 39 23 9 -4 -3 -13 0 1 -4 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -4 -1 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1823 1835 1850 1881 1902 1965 2022 2122 2252 2120 1969 1836 1730 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 7 8 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 15 21 21 14 8 7 6 4 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 20. 19. 17. 14. 12. 11. 9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 07/12/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 07/12/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##