* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 07/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 28 32 38 41 43 43 42 42 41 41 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 28 32 38 41 43 43 42 42 41 41 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 24 23 23 23 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 12 11 8 7 13 8 13 11 14 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -6 -3 -6 0 -3 -1 -3 0 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 56 51 48 30 11 232 209 151 157 189 189 183 173 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.0 25.4 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 150 149 142 137 136 134 130 122 115 112 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -51.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 72 75 74 76 73 69 64 61 57 54 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 74 77 71 71 75 86 85 69 74 77 94 101 102 200 MB DIV 83 90 94 114 134 119 103 52 34 22 10 7 1 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -3 -4 2 -3 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1852 1822 1788 1731 1676 1621 1683 1755 1811 1881 1973 2061 2137 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 6 7 8 9 9 7 6 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 21 15 12 16 7 14 15 8 4 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 30. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 18. 21. 23. 23. 22. 22. 21. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 07/11/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 07/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##