* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 11/20/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 21 17 18 22 27 36 40 36 46 55 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 8 10 8 2 10 6 5 7 3 -1 -7 SHEAR DIR 266 269 265 247 232 225 221 228 233 249 269 279 288 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 150 149 146 145 142 141 138 136 130 125 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 57 53 51 50 47 45 45 44 43 40 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 2 1 4 9 10 2 4 0 -1 6 6 -4 -2 200 MB DIV 58 33 20 -3 6 28 32 10 11 -1 34 1 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 4 5 3 3 5 3 LAND (KM) 1047 1067 1089 1113 1115 1096 1096 1126 1182 1252 1293 1338 1383 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.5 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.4 112.9 113.3 113.7 114.5 115.1 116.0 117.3 118.6 119.9 121.3 122.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 5 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 24 19 18 18 16 14 14 10 7 9 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 770 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -19. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -20. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -15. -21. -26. -30. -34. -37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 11/20/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 11/20/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##